Has the world passed peak globalization? The prospect doesn't bode well for Emerging East Asia to pursue trade oriented growth. But a three part series on "The Peak Globalization Myth" by Richard Baldwin on VoxEU suggests that broad generalizations about globalization's demise are premature. Findings are: the timing of any peaking differs by region; falling commodity prices have figured significantly in declining trade values; and the future of globalization lies in trade in intermediate services.
This post analyzes trade patterns at the economy level for East Asia with a focus on intra-regional trade and trade in intermediate services to assess prospects. The upshot is that developing regional supply chains and pursuing comparative advantage in intermediate services may offer promising opportunities.
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