Asia Economics Blog

Co-authors:  Dora Xia and Hongyi Chen
 
Evaluating the stance of monetary policy for the open economies of East Asia requires a different approach than that developed for the US. In recent years, the discussion has centered around the concept of the neutral real interest rate, or r*. A commonly used definition of r* is the interest rate that prevails when economic slack is zero and inflation is stable. Observers then ask, by comparing r* with the existing policy rate, whether current monetary conditions are too accommodative or too restrictive.

The neutral rate of interest is inherently unobservable as it is a hypothetical concept. Consequently, it must be inferred through estimation. The semi-structural models designed to estimate r* for the US do not adequately capture the macroeconomic dynamics of East Asian economies. In particular, exchange rates and capital flows play a more significant role in East Asia, with spillovers from the US factoring in. Moreover, since the Great Financial Crisis of 2008-09, central banks have expanded their purview beyond the business cycle to give more attention to financial stability.

Co-author: Inkyung Yoo.
 
With the gender gap in educational attainment narrowing, “child penalty” – the effect of parenthood on labor market outcomes – is considered the largest remaining obstacle in eliminating the gender pay gap in developed countries. Recent studies show that women’s earnings drop significantly following first childbirth whereas men’s earnings remain largely unaffected. Various policies are being discussed and studied with the goal of reducing the child penalty.

However, from an individual woman's perspective, there is a sure way to avoid the child penalty – to not have any children. Among OECD countries, the fertility rate is indeed lower in places with societal characteristics associated with heavier child penalties, such as less generous family policies, more traditional gender norms, and inflexible labor markets. But cross-country correlations do not provide insight into how the child penalty might evolve as childlessness increases. Would the child penalty also decline in low-fertility regions, leading to convergence across both gender and countries? Or could a large child penalty affect the composition of mothers so as to further increase the child penalty?

The western Pacific Ocean is not literally pacific—it is not peaceful. In the south, overlapping claims to rocky islets have led to clashes over oil and gas reserves and fishery resources between a half dozen countries. In the north, there are also conflicting claims to maritime features. Across the region low-level hostility is not uncommon.

Problems between Japan and South Korea are particularly thorny. Recently, before the current COVID-19 pandemic, tensions mounted, partly reflecting South Korean resentment over Japanese treatment of Korean women during World War II and Japanese reluctance to recognize this issue. Japanese claims to the South Korean administered island of Dokdo (Takeshima in Japanese) are a continuing touchstone inflaming the discussion.